A Short Conclusion

And so the blog must come to an end. I have enjoyed the writing, filming, watching and reading that has gone in to its creation and hopefully have provided an insight in to the current problem that is glacial retreat as well as the implications that it has on humans in the present day and in the future. 

The blog posts are varied with respect to what they concentrate on but in my opinion all the posts help the reader gain an understanding and broaden their knowledge of glacial retreat. How can I conclude on such a diverse subject?

Clearly there is still much research to be done on the subject, many glaciers have not been sampled and the majority of those that have, have only been looked at over a very short time period. As time goes on though we will be able to get an even clearer understanding of the rates of retreat of mountain glaciers. I firmly believe that the glacial retreat represents a larger problem: global warming. It is a clear and shocking example of the earths changing climate because of anthropogenic influence.

How will humans adapt? It is now clear to me that humans are going to have to adapt. The changes that we make will be dependent on where we are located in the world. Those that are most reliant on glacial melt water will have to change their way of life or adapt their infrastructure to cope with a decreased supply in the long term. Whilst others may not be directly impacted by glacial retreat and a decrease in water supply because of it, the retreat will cause sea level change, which will cause problems for a huge percentage of the earth’s population.

Yet More Evidence

I have just read an article that links very nicely with a previous post regarding some of the problems with future predictions. The article used Alaska and stated that the future of glacial measurement was by using airborne laser altimetry to map the movement of glaciers over time (Arendt et al., 2002). The article by Chen et al. (2006) doesn’t use this airborne laser altimetry but instead uses satellite gravity measurements as an indication of the change in mass of the glacier.

Both studies looked at glacial melt in the Alaskan region of the world. Chen et al. (2006) uses results taken from 2001-2005 where as Arendt et al., (2002) uses data from the mid 90’s until 2000-2001. Slightly different periods of time but both of the experiments found very similar results. Chen et al (2006) found that observed glacial melting is -101+/-22km³/year a very similar result to Arendt et al’s (2002); who found that glacial melt was -95+/-35km³. The fact that both techniques found similar results highlights the rapid retreat that has been taking place over the last 2 decades. 100km³ is a large area of land and this melt water will no doubt be having a significant impact on sea level rise. The study by Chen et al (2006) shows the potential use of satellites in the future of the discipline. Unfortunately there is still much that needs developing and there are many error sources in the study, details of which are outlined in the study.

The graph below shows the mass balance changes around the world, with the data taken using the satellite gravity measurements. Taken from Chen et al. (2006).

My View

This short post highlights the fact that it is not just one technique that has found that such large amounts of glacial ice on the Alskan region of the world are dissapearing. Surely with so many studies concluding the same results the world will conlude on how to combat then ice melt and global sea level rise. 

Reaction to public opinion

Clearly the level of understanding of glacial retreat is varied but I was impressed with the majority of responses. One thing that really stood out for me was the gentleman who was of the view that anthropogenic global warming was a load of rubbish. I guess it may well be my sheltered lifestyle but to hear someone say this was a surprise, he was clearly reasonably informed on the subject citing sunspots as the reason for the current warming trend we are experiencing. Clearly there are still skeptics out there and it is these people that must be persuaded of the problems that we are likely to encounter because of anthropogenic global warming.

As I said, all of the responses impressed me, I felt that the majority of people were well informed on the subject and had knowledge of global warming, the implications of it and possible combative techniques that could be implemented. One of the implications mentioned was quite extreme ‘civil war’, whilst it may sound ridiculous to the uninformed mind perhaps it is not as far fetched as it initially sounds. Take a country that relies heavily on glacial melt water to keep it well supplied with water throughout the year, not just supply it with water but also supply it with electricity through hydropower. If someone were to simply press the off switch I can imagine a lot of people would have a lot of comments to make. Could this turn in to a war of some kind, quite possibly if one country uses all of the water resources upstream of another country then I would certainly imagine arguments taking place. Whether war will break out; we will have to wait and see.

I hope that the video gives people a useful insight in to what members of the public think of the subject.

The Public's Opinion

Limits To Adaptation

Came across an article online that detailed how humans are going to need to adapt because of glacial retreat (Orlove, 2009). Whilst many articles I have read stop at how we need to adapt this article went on to detail the problems with adaptation and gives reasons why in some instances adapting is not possible.

Keeping the tourists happy

The article outlines numerous adaptation measures that have been taken. One of which I thought particularly interesting was the removal of snow from high glaciers and moving it to lower down the mountain to ensure the continued income from tourists in the ski season. In the short run this is a clever idea, it means the continued success of a ski resort, unfortunately however the removal of snow from the top of the mountain to the bottom means that it will melt at a faster rate and will actually increase the rate of glacial retreat at the top of the mountain.  Other ski resorts create fake snow; the article mentions these but concludes that continued warming would make them entirely unviable because of the costs of using the machines. The US national ski service association offers discounts to people who purchase carbon offsets, building awareness of the issue of glacial retreat.

Limits to adaptation

In some countries adaptation is not possible, the article cites a few reasons for this one of them is the issue of responsibility. In many cases it is not clear who is responsible for the melting of the glacier. Is it national governments, private companies or the local population that is responsible? Giving responsibility to the right group of people is key in ensuring that the correct path is taken. A local group may not have the resources to deal with a problem, a private company may only have profit in mind and a national government may not see the issues in the local area; only the large scale issues.

A second issue is the fact that glacial retreat has more than one impact. It has impacts on water resources, natural hazards and cultural landscapes. Coming up with one solution that will solve all of these problems is a challenge that has to be overcome if we are to learn to adapt to changing circumstances.

My View

In my opinion the main point of this post is not about how we are adapting to glacial retreat right now but it is about the limitations and how we are going to overcome the problems in the future. There clearly are some hard issues that must be overcome if we are going to be able to adapt to the changing circumstances of glacial retreat. It may well mean prioritizing sorting out one problem above another, whether this is protecting water resources or preventing natural hazards.

Guardian - 4 Short Videos

The Guardian has a 4 part video series which shows some of the problems that locals are encountering because of changing water patterns. It is worth taking some time to watch all 4 parts, they do vary in their relevance but are all equally interesting.

Guardian videos...

Glacial Retreat In The Andes

Glacial melt

Glaciers have always been a lure to the adventurous side of the human psyche, the fact they are disappearing is one of the most persuasive arguments for climate change. Nobody can deny that there must be a reason for spectacular changes in ice volume over relatively short periods of time. Skeptics might point to alternative theories behind glacial melt, a decrease in precipitation, a change in humidity or wind. However, on a global scale the main line of thinking is that air temperature is the primary factor that controls the recent glacial melt. The IPCC (2001) show how for a mid-latitude glacier, a 1 degree centigrade rise in temperature would have the same impact as cloudiness or precipitation decreasing by 30% and 25% respectively. Despite this being the case for mid-latitude glaciers Sicart et al. (2003 in Coudrain et al., 2005) suggest that for tropical glaciers the reason for retreat is more complex, stating that the most important factors could actually be those that determine the local albedo. For all glaciers a shift in the equilibrium line upwards means that more ablation will be taking place in relation to accumulation and the glacier will be retreating.

Tropic Glaciers in the Andes – small glaciers

Andean tropical glaciers are unlike the alpine glaciers; ablation takes place consistently throughout the year. The melting is at its highest when the strongest radiation coincides with the highest amount of precipitation (Coudrain et al., 2005). Glacial retreat in this area has been particularly significant for small glaciers. The Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia has now disappeared, a glacier that had been dated back to 18,000 years BP. The link below shows a map of the retreat over time:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8046540.stm

Glacial retreat in the Andes has not been uniform over the last century; instead it is driven by changes in temperature on a decadal time scale, which are driven by the ENSO mechanism (Coudrain et al., 2005). The warm periods see a negative mass balance (ablation > accumulation) of glaciers whereas during the colder periods there is a positive glacier mass balance. Whilst decadal temperature has driven variations in the rates of retreat the overall pattern has been an increasing average air temperature. Carrasco et al. (2005) report a warming of 1.3-2.1 degrees centigrade in minimum near surface temperature in central Chile between 1961 and 2001.

Examples

Jordan  et al. (2005) – Using aerial photography to quantify the evolution of glacial surface area of the Cotopaxi Volcano ice cap, found a stagnation between 1956 to 1976 and then a strong retreat from 1976 to 1997 where the glaciers lost around 30% of their mass.

Rivera et al. (2005) – found that ice capped volcanoes in the Chilean Lake District had retreated significantly during recent decades. Between 1987 and 2003 the glaciers decreased in area by 0.45km² per year. Thought to be driven mainly by climatic factors.

Mark et al. (2005) – estimated glacial melt contribution to stream flow in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru). Finding that 66% was from glacial melt, which doesn’t bode well for when there are no more glaciers in the area.

My View

Glacial melt water stores a significant amount of freshwater (69.6% of the worlds freshwater). Unfortunately the recent pattern of glacial retreat is likely to lead to water shortages people, bound to impact on health but also on the economies of many countries that rely on the energy that melt water supplies throughout the year.